协会继2011年遭受930万美元损失及1%的投资回报后，自由储备金再次增长。

这表明，瑞典协会不但弥补了去年的损失，并且自由储备金再次持续增长。在经历过艰难的一年后，瑞典协会的这一成就值得在哥德堡举行的其140周年纪念会上好好庆贺一番。

2011年是协会历史上遭受巨额索赔打击最严重的一年——建于1990年，3032标准箱的”瑞纳” 号(Rena)集装箱船灭失，该船在瑞典协会投保了保赔险以及船壳险。另外还有两起重大事故，索赔额也是大到需要与其他国际保赔集团协会一起来分担。2011瑞典协会面临1100万美元承保亏损和百分之一的投资回报，全年亏损为930万美元。但从年会上公布的柱状图中可见，2012年第一季度协会盈余1500万美元。由此可判断，是各种不利协会的情况集中出现，使得2011年变成一段异常的时期。

常务董事Lars Rhodin把亏损描述成”在动荡之年里，可以接受”。瑞典协会是国际保赔集团协会中亏损最大的一家，但货币形式的亏损并没有那么大，Rhodin表示自由储备金增长显著超过过去几年。瑞典协会也是按日历年作为财务结算点，不同于其他多数竞争对手，以2月20日作为保赔险续保日，并在此基础上报告其财务状况。如果瑞典协会以截止2月份的财务数字来报告，那么其财务业绩就小有盈余。

由于担心产权投资市场行情，瑞典协会在2011年夏末卖出其一半的股市投资，但于今年早些时候收回。协会目前的投资组合中，股票占了20%，尽管可以更好的控制资金风险，但也限制了回报率。如果股票、债券、外汇利率变得特别不利，协会做好面对亏损2500万美元风险的准备，这样做的目的在于确保证券投资组合的平衡。

Rhodin评论说，”不入虎穴，焉得虎子”。承保亏损具体情况是：总体净综合赔付率为110%，保赔险综合赔付率为115%，但船壳险和能源险的综合赔付率较好，为101%。综合赔付率是衡量承保业绩的重要指标，数值大于100%即意味着亏损。

尽管迈航运(Costamare)旗下”瑞纳”号轮的灭失产生3亿美元的索赔，但是在很多方面，该事故并不引人注意，因为”瑞纳”号轮并不是船型特别大或特别昂贵的船舶。新西兰阿斯特罗莱布暗礁也并非以危险著称，在Rhodin看来，从这里附近经过的船只百分之九十不会碰上这块礁石。这起事故的特别之处在于，该偏僻位置靠近陶兰加港，也就是说，所有处理事故的资源需从新加坡运来——新加坡离事故发生地的距离几乎等于其与瑞典之间的距离。由此，这起事故也就演变成了一个”非常具有政治色彩的游戏”。

Rhodin 补充道，迈航运(Costamare)是瑞典协会著名的忠实会员，与瑞典协会有超过30年的合作，信誉良好。但是海上保险的性质正是”总是那些不太可能发生的事情会发生”。Rhodin还表示，”事故从来不是由于单一错误导致的，而是多个事件同时发生合力的结果。”他说，听到该事故后的第一反应是”航运果然有风险”。

但是，也许比起集装箱船”瑞纳”号轮灭失更为令人震惊的是”歌诗达协和”号(Costa Concordia)邮轮的搁浅和倾覆，那真是一场悲剧。Rhodin曾经说过：”我们保险人始终认为，邮轮在航行安全方面是顶级的。我的孩子们曾问我为什么会发生这些事故？我能怎样回答呢？只能说人类是会犯错误的！”

JIM MULRENAN 哥德堡
2012年6月20日

Swedish Club springs back after loss

The free reserve is again moving upwards after a $9.3m loss in 2011 and a marginal 1% return on investment.

What it showed was that the Swedish Club had more than clawed back last year’s loss and the free reserve was again moving upwards. So there was something to celebrate when the Swedish Club marked its 140th anniversary in Gothenburg after a difficult year.

It was a year when the club was hit by the most costly claim in its history – the loss of the 3,032-teu containership Rena (built 1990) which had hull as well as protection-and-indemnity (P&I) cover, as well as two other casualties serious enough to be pooled with other International Group clubs. The Swedish Club incurred a $9.3m loss through 2011 as it was squeezed between an $11m underwriting deficit and a marginal 1% investment return. But the glimpsed bar chart at the annual general meeting suggests there was a surplus of as much as $15m through the first quarter of 2012, so last year was an untypical period when various circumstances turned against the club.

Managing director Lars Rhodin characterised the loss as “acceptable in a turbulent year” . The Swedish Club’s deficit was the biggest in the International Group but not so large in monetary terms, with Rhodin noting that the free reserve had grown significantly over recent years. The club also has calendar-year accounting, unlike rivals who mostly report on a year based on the 20 February renewal of P&I cover. If the Swedish Club had February reporting it would have turned a modest profit.

Worries about the performance of equity markets led to the Swedish Club selling half its stock-market investments in late summer 2011 but it returned earlier this year and now has 20% of its portfolio in equities, albeit in a way that offers capital protection at the expense of limiting the upside. The approach is that the Swedish Club is prepared to risk losing $25m if equities or bonds crashed or foreign-exchange rates moved in a particularly adverse way but aims to safeguard the balance of its portfolio.

“If you don’t take risks, you have no return,” commented Rhodin. The underwriting loss meant that was a overall net combined ratio of 110%, with P&I the problem at 115% but hull and energy only marginally negative at 101%. Combined ratios are a key measure of underwriting performance with figures above 100% indicating a loss.

Although the loss of the Costamare-owned Rena is set to produce a $300m claim, what happened is in many ways unremarkable. The Rena was not a particularly big or costly ship. New Zealand’s Astrolabe Reef is not a notorious hazard, with Rhodin suggesting that nine out of 10 times a ship passing close by would miss it. What was different was the remoteness of the location near the port of Tauranga, which meant all the resources to tackle the casualty had to be brought from Singapore – almost as far from the casualty as it is from Sweden. The casualty also became a “very political game” .

Costamare is a famously loyal Swedish Club member of more than 30 years’ standing, with a good reputation, but the nature of marine insurance is that it is “quite likely that something unlikely will happen” , adds Rhodin. “A casualty is never the result of a single mistake but a concurrence of events” he noted. Rhodin says his immediate thought on hearing of the casualty was “there is risk in shipping” .

But perhaps more shocking than a containership loss was the tragic grounding and capsize of the Costa Concordia. “We underwriters always thought the cruise industry state-of-the-art in terms of navigation,” said Rhodin. “I have been asked by my children what went wrong and there is basically no other answer than people make mistakes.”

BY JIM MULRENAN GOTHENBURG
20 June 2012