Western powers are prepared to offer Iran an “oil carrot” that would allow it to continue supplying crude to Asian customers in exchange for guarantees it is not building an atomic bomb.

As the five permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, Germany and the European Union prepare for talks with Iranian officials in Baghdad on Wednesday, diplomats and oil executives said Washington and Brussels were likely to hold out the prospect of a possible suspension of an EU insurance ban on ships carrying Iranian oil. They added that the US and EU are not prepared to lift other sanctions – including an EU import ban on Iranian oil – and also cautioned that a deal is unlikely to be agreed at the meeting.

Waiving the EU insurance ban, which takes effect on July 1, would allow China, India, Japan and South Korea to buy shipping insurance in London, which dominates the market. Asian refiners have warned that without a waiver they would not be covered against the risk of multibillion pollution claims and would have to halt their purchases of Iranian crude. Asian governments have been considering offering sovereign insurance to their refiners.

Brussels has already acknowledged it is reviewing the ban to ensure it does not have any “undesired” impact on the energy market. Oil executives estimate Japan and South Korea could stop buying an additional 400,000 barrels a day from Iran from July if they do not receive a waiver in the next two months. Iran exports roughly 2.2m b/d.

A temporary suspension of the ban on protection and indemnity, known as P&I insurance, is one of the least controversial concessions that could be offered by the US and Europe, which could face criticism at home for being too soft on Tehran.

Western diplomats also cautioned that they wanted to see what concessions Iran might offer over the next weeks, especially regarding its handling of highly enriched uranium, before they decide on a final response. “Clearly, if Iran offered a verifiable and major concession to export a part of its stock of its highly enriched uranium and ceased production [of highly enriched uranium], we would discuss how to respond,” a western diplomat told the FT. “This is a negotiation … We are not travelling to Baghdad with any kind of offer on P&I in our pocket.”

Hossein Mousavian, a former Iranian nuclear negotiator now at Princeton University, said Tehran would expect “substantial relief on central bank and oil sanctions” in return for major concessions on its nuclear programme. Tehran insists that its nuclear programme is peaceful, while the US and EU suspect its real aim is to build an atomic weapon.

Lifting the insurance ban over the next few months would help minimise the impact of the sanctions on the global oil market. The US and EU diplomats say their intention is not to take all Iranian oil off the market, which could lead to a spike in prices, but to squeeze Iranian revenues by blocking only some sales.

At the talks, the EU and six world powers will present Iran with a detailed package of confidence building measures which they want Iran to undertake immediately, such as freezing its production of more highly enriched uranium.

In return, the international community would assist Iran on a range of issues such as boosting nuclear safety.

“We will lay down a package of things we want Iran to do and we will undertake reciprocal steps,” said a western diplomat. “Our hope is to come away from Baghdad with Iran agreeing to work with us on the implementation of this package by the time we hold another meeting.”

西方拟调整制裁伊朗立场

西方大国准备向伊朗施予 “石油胡萝卜” ，允许伊朗继续向亚洲买家供应石油，从而换取伊朗现在不制造原子弹的保证。

联合国安理会(UN Security Council)五个常任理事国、德国及欧盟(EU)准备于今天在巴格达与伊朗官员举行会谈，外交官员和石油产业高管表示，华盛顿和布鲁塞尔方面可能会提出暂停欧盟针对装载伊朗石油的船只实施的保险禁令。他们补充道，美国和欧盟并没有准备解除其他制裁，包括欧盟对伊朗石油的进口禁令。他们还警告，今天的会上达成协议的可能性不大。

一旦解除将于7月1日生效的欧盟保险禁令，中国、印度、日本和韩国就能从伦敦购买海运保险。伦敦主导着海运保险市场。亚洲炼油企业曾警告，如果不能解除保险禁令，它们就无法安排保险，只能自行承担高昂污染索赔的风险，从而不得不停止从伊朗购买原油。为此亚洲国家政府正在考虑为本国的炼油企业安排国内(主权)保险。

欧盟（布鲁塞尔）承认正在审核禁令，以确保其不会对能源市场产生 “超出预期” 的影响。石油业高管预计，如果在今后两个月时间内不能解除禁令，日本和韩国从7月份开始会停止每天40万桶的石油进口。伊朗目前每天的石油出口量是220万桶。

暂时解除保赔保险（P&I）禁令，是美国和欧盟最有可能作出的争议性让步，即便如此也可能使欧盟面临对伊朗过于温和的指责。

西方外交官们特别指出，他们希望先观察伊朗愿意作出怎样的让步，再决定最终的答复。一位西方外交官表示： “显然，如果伊朗做出可验证的重大让步，出口一部分高浓缩铀库存，并停止生产（高浓缩铀），我们就会讨论相应的回应政策。这是一次谈判，我们在到达巴格达前，不会事先准备好在保赔保险(P&I)问题上做出任何让步。”